A predictive model for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, extending an earlier passing-network analysis into a full forecasting pipeline trained on five international tournaments.
- Problem
- The 2026 field expands to 48 teams, and many new entrants from the AFC, OFC, and CONCACAF have no prior World Cup event data — a model trained only on past World Cups has no way to cover most of the field.
- Solution
- Each team's features — progressive passing, press intensity, expected-goals differential, defensive activity — are pulled from its best-available tournament (World Cup, Euros, Copa América, or AFCON) and converted to percentile ranks so scores compare fairly across competitions of different strength. Teams with no coverage at all get a conservative confederation-average estimate instead of a guess. The logistic regression model is validated with leave-one-tournament-out testing, then calibrated and rescaled so all 48 teams' semifinal probabilities sum to exactly 4.
- Outcome
- Consistent out-of-sample AUC above 0.70 across held-out tournaments, with expected-goals differential emerging as the strongest single predictor — offensive playmaking alone doesn't win without defensive quality behind it.